MODELLING PREDICTS ONTARIO ICU ADMISSIONS WILL RISE, EVEN WITHOUT OMICRON VARIANT

Dec 07, 2021

By Bob Komsic

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There could be as many as 3,000 new daily cases of COVID-19 and almost 400 patients in hospital intensive care units by mid-January, even without accounting for the Omicron variant.
That’s just one of the projections in the latest modelling from the COVID-19 Science Advisory Table.
The scenario is based on no change in contacts and 30% of young children vaccinated.
If immunization of children reaches 50% by the end of this month, there could be just above 1,500 cases-a-day.
With 15% decrease in transmission through more strict public health measures and 30% vaccination of children, then cases are projected to hover around 1,000 per-day.
But Omicron was not included in any of these scenarios and would ”likely worsen” the projections, according to the province’s pandemic science advisers.
The modelling comes on the day Ontario’s reporting 928 new cases, with 527 in those either not vaccinated or whose status is unknown.
Currently there are 165 patients in hospital ICUs with COVID-19 related critical illness.
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