NEW COVID-19 MODELLING NUMBERS OFFER GRIM OUTLOOK

Nov 12, 2020

By Christine Ross

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There has been a dramatic growth of COVID-19 in Ontario that show at a 5% rate of growth, Ontario could hit 6,500  new infections a day by mid-December. That’s about four times the record level of 1,575. At 3%, the number would be around 3,000 new daily cases. The projections also offer up a grim picture of long term care homes, where Dr. Steini Brown with the COVID science table says deaths are up substantially, tripled since the last modelling projections.
“It’s now 71 deaths in the past 7 days and as case rates climb, you can expect mortality to climb as well,” said Dr. Brown.

There have been 196 deaths of long term care residents since August 1st. The surge in ICU patients, now at 88, could top 150 in two weeks, a level when surgeries and procedures have to be cancelled.
“This is an important threshold because it’s that point at which we need to start cancelling planned surgeries and no longer deliver the full slate of planned care,” added Dr. Brown.

The new projections show Ontario’s COVID numbers will likely exceed several jurisdictions in Europe that are now in some form of lockdown.
When asked if Ontario should consider further restrictions, Dr. Brown responded “If the goal is to reduce the impact on the health system, then yes.”
Ontario Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams says this is a critical time for Ontario. “We know how difficult these past few months have been for everyone, communities, businesses, and families but the challenge is we need to get these numbers down.

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